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TSE:SGY
Have a very high level of debt, and the market is indicating they need to cut the dividend and he wouldn’t be surprised if they did. He has a really small piece of this and is waiting to see what happens with the dividend. If they do cut the dividend, he might actually add back to this, especially if it sold off.
Dividend is $0.60 and they are supposed to earn $0.46, so they are not covering their dividend. Also it is “not in the blue”. There may be a bounce to $5.21, and if he owned, he might potentially be a Seller there. Like all the rest of the small-cap energy stocks, we are going into tax loss season and a lot of these names are going to be scrutinized if not sold, so the pressure is going to be rather immense. Before getting into a trade, he is waiting for all those dynamics to get filtered through and for the analysts to come in. Also a lot of companies like this, especially the smaller ones, they have been buying energy at Top Dollar. He won’t know this until another quarter, when it all shakes out. Yield of 13.2%.
This is kind of a hybrid growth, hybrid dividend payer, medium-sized oil company. Because they have done a bunch of acquisitions it is a little bit stretched as far as the balance sheet goes, so has acted quite a bit worse than the comparative Whitecap Resources (WCP-T). If he were going to pick one like this, it would be Whitecap or Crescent Point (CPG-T). Yield of 14% now and the market is telling you that there may be a cut.
If you own, he would Sell and take your profit, or at least not Buy any more. This is a good story. They have grown through acquisition and the acquisition story has basically dried up out west, so there is not the same degree of options for management to buy. They have 24% production declines through their producing properties, which mean they have to figure out a way to grow production by 24% to remain flat on an annual basis. He doesn’t see how they could make this happen.
Feels very comfortable owning this company through this volatility in oil prices. Their strategy is to invest in large “oil in place” pools, boosting recoveries, mitigating the decline rates of these assets through instituting water flood across their asset base and keeping the sustainability of the dividend at a level where little bumps in a road are not going to sink them.
One of the better names out there. Have grown a lot by acquisition. Facing a 24% decline rate. His issue with them and many of these players is that the acquisition market is pretty much dried up in Western Canada. If you are not able to grow by acquisition and the commodity is weak, and to remain weak for some time, where is your catalyst for this name or any of them.
The sector went down and they raised the dividend, so it seems high. He has no idea what the sector is going to do, but thinks they will continue to pay the dividend. The management needs to be left to do their thing which they have done for the last 20 years. WCP-T is a leader and has outperformed this one.