Toronto DominionTD.TOTOP PICKFeb 08, 2001Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 05, 2026. Market Open.
It has had a rough go related to money laundering. It is well run but a laggard in the space and he wants to see a better technical picture which means more people are interested in it. It is better to look at something else - he owns National Bank and Royal Bank. He is not value focused and wants to see the tech picture to line up with the fundamentals picture.
A year ago, they were trying to buy First Horizon Bank, but now have at on of cash because they didn't buy it. But his cash is a drag on earnings for not being deployed. Is the most defensive Canadian stock. though has underperformed peers recently. They will find the right acquisition that works and will clear out money laundering allegations.
The last quarter disappointed investors and it was the only bank to announce re-structuring for next year, not just the last quarter as the other banks did. There are $500 million in expenditures needed for risk management and anti money laundering controls. Therefore the stock price has dropped but once this has all settled down it should be able to catch up to its peers. It pays a dividend of almost 5%. Buy 9 Hold 6 Sell 1
(Analysts’ price target is $88.10)Same comments as with Royal Bank. Both enjoy a regulated oligopoly. TD is well exposed to the US and enjoys a healthy wealth management business. TD is heavily capitalized, more than RY, because they couldn't buy First Horizon last spring. They can raise dividends, buyback shares and/or buy companies. Trades at a discount to the 5-year PE. The dividend will grown. Expect double-digit returns. He doesn't see a housing bubble, though housing supply is short as immigration inflows remain strong. That said, TD is exposed to a potential downturn in housing prices, but is a short-term headwind.
Banks in Canada are trading at good prices. TD has more capital than other Canadian banks so it is in a position to make acquisitions. Also it is geographically diversified. It has a 4.6% dividend and trades at 10X earnings. In general Canadian banks are well regulated and more diversified than U.S. regional banks. They are also good at reserving for when times are bad. The risk is that there are more variable rate mortgages in place.
Buy 11 Hold 4 Sell 1
All Canadian banks are down for the year, due to higher interest rates and the contagion from the US regionals earlier this year. TD remains a quality blue-chip bank with a strong balance sheet. Has the biggest deposit base in Canada. Has plenty of branches in the US eastern seaboard. They didn't buy a US bank earlier this year so they have a lot of cash. Trades at a very low single-digit PE and pays over a 5% dividend yield, both rare occurrences. A contrarian call.
(Analysts’ price target is $90.49)