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Stockchase Opinions

Andrew PyleCanadian Western BankCWB.TOBUY ON WEAKNESSMar 07, 2023

The valuation is now attractive. This is not a bad entry point. A risk is compressed net interest margins. Could be more downside on banks given recession fears.

$26.03

Stock price when the opinion was issued

$56.63

As of Feb 04, 2025. Market Open.

banks
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TOP PICK

Likes this bank because it is run differently than other Canadian banks (more energy clients). Fundamentals of bank look good. Technical aspects of chart look great. Believes stock could hit $40. Will continue to hold. 

HOLD

Fate of energy sector directly impacts success of company.
High exposure to energy industry through lending.
Does not own shares - too risky.
Large Canadian banks better for defensive investors.

HOLD
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

EPS of $0.88 beat estimates of $0.8209 and revenues of $283.51M beat estimates of $276.84M. Net income available to shareholders was $83M, an increase of 19% compared to the prior quarter. Management noted its strong financial results were driven by branch-raised deposit growth, improved sales, and discipline on managing expenses. Its annual loan growth of 6% led net interest income higher by 5%, and overall the market was pleased with these results. Management expects mid single-digit percentage growth in loans and low single-digital percentage growth in branch-raised deposits growth for FY2023. There are some concerns on the economy ahead from management, however, it believes its prudent lending approach and expense management will help to offset some of this weakness. Overall this was a decent quarter for the company.
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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jun 13/22, Down 7%)

Very cheap. Strong balance sheet, decent yield, very nice upside potential. The West is coming back thanks to oil. Banks in general have been under pressure to raise more reserves. Rising interest rates are mixed for the banks. 

Unspecified

It is down and bouncing around within a band range. He is not sure about the details of the company but the dividend is reasonably safe. It may be good for a long term investor but there are others which may be better quality.

DON'T BUY

Largely a regional bank. Reasonable-sized commercial business outside Western Canada. Prefers the bigger banks, with their diversification by line of business and geography. Applauds its efforts to grow, but banking is increasingly a business where size and scale gives the big players an advantage.

WEAK BUY

Management pretty astute. Expanding fairly aggressively in Ontario. Lots of opportunities. Yield is over 5%, relatively safe. Good at measuring credit in the small business sector, and delivering personal service to small business clients. Reasonably good buy if you have a longer term focus.

HOLD
Hold or sell? Future ahead. Interest rates have impacted all banks. Focused on western Canada, which has seen a turnaround in last 18 months. Means more business for CWB. Bottomed out, regaining footing and heading back up. Hold, if you have a long time horizon.
BUY
Trading below book value. Issue was it suffered along with western Canada oil and gas, but that part's over. Not expensive, but how do they grow? Historically, has done well in the right environment, especially if oil stays at these levels. Great dividend yield of 5.4%.
Unspecified
He respects the company - it is a trail blazer in new sectors and financing so there is more opportunity. There is good economic pickup and retail business development in the West especially the Prairie provinces, Alberta and Saskatchewan. It is more volatile than the big banks.
SELL
It's fallen below his lowest level of resistance. Market is questioning its balance sheet. Not a good omen for the province of Alberta, as it signals most of the lending is not in this geography.
DON'T BUY
Banks don't have return on invested capital that prefers. Excess capital that can be re-invested not there. Majority of free cash flow paid out in dividends. Would prefer other options in under valued tech sector.
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Recent selloff in shares of the company. Prefers large Canadian banks. Good buy for value investors. Wait to see bottom of market before buying.
DON'T BUY
CWB vs. NA Between these and the Big 5, he'd prefer one of the 5. Between this and NA, he'd prefer NA. NA is better diversified in lines of business and geographically. NA has better scale advantage, management, and capitalization. High single-digit dividend increases from NA are pretty reliable, though its dividend increases may pause if credit losses get too high.