Guide Exploration (GO.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Guide Exploration (GO.TO)

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PAST TOP PICK

(Top Pick Dec 1/09, Down 17%) It was a value play. They have huge assets. He hoped they could execute on a strategy and grow production. They had a number of set backs and he exited the position.

HOLD

If you are a believer in the recovery of natural gas prices for 2011, you’ll do quite well. Value of their proven reserves is about $4.25 in a $5 natural gas market. Have decreased their financial leverage so debt to cash flow is about 1X.

SELL

Completed strategic review and no buyer could be found. Struggling to meet production. A name to sell or at least not buy.

BUY

A brutal story. He was buying it today. He is using it as a way to play an unbelievably beaten up story. It’s cheap on a reserve basis and on a cash flow basis. CEO changed. Limited downside.

SELL

Thinks investment world has lost faith with management. Consider moving to Emerge (EME-T).

COMMENT

Oil and Gas in Western Canada. Sold one of their large assets. Still looking at other options to raise cash.

DON'T BUY

Chart is showing quite a bit of weakness relative to its peers. If you are currently in this, don't average down but consider reducing out of it.

DON'T BUY

Concerns him. They were looking for someone to buy the company in its entirety but sold a part so suggests they were unsuccessful in finding a buyer. There are much better names to invest in.

PAST TOP PICK

(Top Pick Jun 11/09, Up 21.40%) Effectively up for sale right now.

PAST TOP PICK

(Top Pick Nov 5/09, Up 6% total return) The junior oils are doing better than the senior oils. It just pulled back to its 200 day moving average, which is rising and he thinks this is a good buying opportunity. Stop loss at $4.65. Still has a lot of upside potential.

COMMENT

Q1 results were quite good. Put themselves up for sale. Doesn't think there is a huge amount of downside. Relatively inexpensive but doesn't expect to see a lot of M&A activity for a while.

DON'T BUY

Doing a strategic review so looking at all the terms including selling the company. He would be cautious on this one. Have some good acreage but have to prove up a lot of it and bring it into development, which means capital.

BUY

A lot of the natural gas stocks have pulled back a little. Now going through a transition of more of a resource play in the Montney and Doig plays. Still have more drilling to do to prove it out but thinks it will be successful.

DON'T BUY

Very enviable position primarily in Alberta. 2 cautions. 1) They have put themselves up for sale and 2) have over promised and under delivered.

BUY

Thinks it has room to move to the upside. Could be a takeover candidate.

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Guide Exploration (GO.TO)