Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O’Reilly In times of market uncertainty, Canadian chartered banks are a defensive holding. CM trades at under 10x earnings and near book value. It’s dividend is backed by a payout ratio under 50% of cash flow. We recommend placing a stop-loss at $52, looking to achieve $93 — upside potential over 55%. Yield 5.5% (Analysts’ price target is $92.77)
Canadian banks will have similar difficulties as their U.S. counterparts. CIBC is well capitalized and can buy back shares. It will probably increase its reserves.
Will volatility in banks end? The banks are an indicator of markets. Capital markets activity (a lot less M&A) has impacted banks. However, net interest income is positive. On balance, banks have a decent profit profile. They hold a lot of capital to pull many levers like buy back shares. He is quite positive all banks. His favourites are BNS and TD, followed by Royal. CIBC has a weaker growth profile.
He's lightened up on financials. Valuations are compelling, but margin and loan growth will be stagnant. Banks don't do well in recessions. Large loan book in Canada, without access to the US. It's fine, but his preference is TD or RY.
Bank stocks have retreated significantly. Moving judiciously into the US, now 20% of earnings come from there with a goal of 25%. Outstanding value right now. Second-highest dividend yield right now at 5.27%. (Analysts’ price target is $76.18)
A favourite in this environment. Well priced compared to the group. Concern is that they're more of a domestic bank, higher exposure to housing. Coming through past problems. Trading at 9x forward earnings. Yield close to 5%.
CM vs. MFC CM has a dividend yield of 5.2% vs. MFC at 5.8%. CM trades at 8x earnings, MFC at 7x. CM trades above book value, MFC below book. MFC is cheaper, strong Asian franchise with room to grow. CM has become a strong retail bank. CM will be affected more than MFC by what happens to the Canadian economy. Buy either at these levels.
In this environment, the Canadian banks will probably come down a bit. We have a monopoly structure here in Canada. Be opportunistic when you deploy capital. This one's fine. Buy on the next weakness, and you should be fine. But beware that there could be more downside.
Last dog for the last few cycles. No issue with the dividend. The other banks are a bit better. Everything's down with the market, so give it a bit of time. See Top Picks for his favourite Canadian bank.
BNS vs. CIBC or both? If you bought and held Canadian banks in 1976, they would have outperformed the markets. Banks enjoy an oligopoly. CIBC has had everything go wrong in the last 20 years, but they have now regained credibility. CIBC is more exposed to Canada than its peers. BNS is a big player in Latin America. CIBC is a solid play on the Canadian economy, driven by high oil prices (and the Russian war). BNS is invested in high-growth companies in Mexico, Peru and Chile. BNS will be more volatile than CIBC because of high oil prices and food shortage, but if those economies do well then BNS will also do very well.
Well managed company with strong brand in Canada.
One of the fastest growing banks in Canada.
Company has been hit hard in recent market selloff.
Market afraid of recession and the effect it will have on the company.
Believes company has excellent prospects going forward.
Current yield is over 5% which is a good rate of return.
Has been selling shares lately after recent share price increase.
Slowdown in economy and headwinds for the economy will be hard for banks.
Collect dividend and play it safe, but not expecting much share price appreciation.
Believes recent financial metrics better than market is recognizing.
Financials and company operating metrics are strong.
Current share price is presenting good buying opportunity.
Even with fears of recession, good place to invest capital.
CM vs. BMO BMO completing 16B acquisition in the US. BMO has a much larger presence in the US, whereas CM has the larger presence in Canada. CM has been the faster grower, and he favours it. Execution risk with BMO, especially in a tough market. CM has the better opportunity, but he doesn't knock BMO.
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM.TO) Frequently Asked Questions
What is Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce stock symbol?
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce is a Canadian stock, trading under the symbol CM.TO (previously CM-T on Stockchase) on the Toronto Stock Exchange (CM-CT). It is usually referred to as TSX:CM or CM.TO
Is Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce a buy or a sell?