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EnbridgeENB.TOWAITJun 08, 2023Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 19, 2026. Market Open.
Largest pipeline operator in North America. ~7% yield very strong. Expected to continue growing dividend. Recent weakness in energy prices reason for share price weakness. Assets very valuable as hard to replicated. Pause and/or falling interest rates will be good for business. Good for income oriented investors.
He doesn't think a 5% weighting in a stock is crazy, it's very reasonable. If you have a lot of conviction in those companies, then that's where your weighting should be. Yield is around 7%. Won't reduce the dividend unless something really terrible happens. Extremely mature company, will grow with GDP plus or minus, highly levered.
Investors own for the dividend. He wouldn't overweight his portfolio with it, but makes sense for a certain demographic.
Difficult couple of years with interest rates. Big acquisition required issuing equity and taking on debt. Acquisition needs to be integrated, but they're pros at that. Diversifies its business. Stock's bounced back since then. No problem maintaining dividend. Becoming more US-focused, Canada's regulations make things too difficult.
His firm constructs a Structural Valuation Analysis (SVA) chart, which implies that there's a form and structure to the way that prices get formed in the stock market. It applies to both stocks and to the market.
There's a broad downward trend to the chart. The first thing to ask is if you really want to be in a company whose balance sheet is disappearing under your feet? If it's cheap enough, sure. But otherwise, not particularly.
The key is the Fair Market Value (FMV), or intrinsic value, of the company. Every time the stock gets up there, it stops. That's characteristic of senior stocks. When he looks at a chart, he knows what a company can give him. ENB has come back to a very important point, which is 2x book, one of his structural resistance points. It hit there, and stepped back. Looks as though it's going down further. Too early to be in the stock. If it got around $42, he'd be more interested.